三个“寒潮”压力下 螺纹钢价格存在“死亡螺旋”吗?

发布时间:2019-04-11

MEIGUOXINXIFUWUTIGONGSHANGSHIJIEGANGTIEDONGTAI(World Steel Dynamics,WSD)ZAIQUNIANNIANMOFABUDEBAOGAOZHONGRENWEI,QUANQIUJIANGYINGLAISANGE“HANCHAO”:YIGESHIQUANQIUJINGJIZENGSUJIANHUAN;YIGESHIYUANYOU、LV、TONG、NIEDENGTEDINGSHANGPINJIAGEZOUDI;HAIYOUYIGESHIBAOKUOZHONGGUO、MEIGUOZAINEIDEGANGTIESHICHANGYALIJIADA。RANERYIXIEHANYIZAI2019NIANNIANCHUXIAOSAN,LUOWENGANGJIAGECHUXIANFANDAN,DAN2019NIANXIATIAN,YOUYUZHONGGUOLUOWENGANGDEGONGYINGGUOSHENG(YUE68JIAGANGCHANGZHENGDUOSHICHANGFENE),LUOWENGANGCHUKOUJIAGEXIAXINGYALIJIANGZHONGXIAN。

未来可能出现以下情形

江西11选52019NIAN1YUE,HRBCHUKOUJIAGEMEIDUNXIAJIANG25MEIYUANDAODAYUEMEIDUN465MEIYUAN(FOBJIA)。ZHEIGEJIAGEDAZHIYUZHONGDENGCHENGBENGANGCHANGDEYUNYINGCHENGBENYIZHI。YOUYUGANGTIEQIYEZHUYAOYUANCAILIAOJIAGEDEXIADIE,CHENGBENKENENGHUIXIAJIANG20MEIYUAN/DUN。2019NIANCHUNTIAN,HRBCHUKOUJIAGESHANGZHANGZHIMEIDUN650—700MEIYUAN(FOBJIA)。ZHEISHIYIGEDUANQIJIAGE,YINWEIDANGTABEIYUNDAOGUOWAIGANGKOUSHI,TADEJIAGEJIANGGAOYUXUDUOGUOJIADEGUONEIJIAGE。HENDUORENKENENGHUIDUIHRBCHUKOUJIAGEDUANZANSHANGZHANGGANDAOYIHUO,DANWSDDUIQUANQIUJINGJIZENGZHANGBIAOSHILEGUAN,YUANYINRUXIA:BUTAIDANXINQUANQIUMAOYIZHANHUIYANZHONGZUAIQUANQIUJINGJIKUOZHANG;ZHANGQIKAN,10NIANQIMEIGUOGUOZHAILILVRENGCHUYUKUANSONGZHUANGTAI。

YEXUZAIXIABANNIAN,HUOZHEGENGYOUKENENGSHIZAI2020NIAN,HRBCHUKOUJIAGEJIANGDAFUXIADIE,YUANDIYUDANGQIANDEMEIDUN490MEIYUAN。YUCITONGSHI,ZHONGGUOGUONEIDEHRBCHUCHANGJIACONGMEIDUN440MEIYUANJIANGDAOMEIDUN375—400MEIYUAN。DANGRAN,JIANYUZHONGGUODEDIJIA,ZHONGGUOGANGCHANGJIANGZAISHIJIESHICHANGSHANGTIGONGCHAODIJIADEHRB,HRBDECHUKOUJIAZAIXIAYIGEDIMIQIKENENGHUIDUANZANJIANGZHIMEIDUN400—425MEIYUAN(FOBJIA)。

螺纹钢价格下跌

2018NIAN7YUE1RIYILAI,QUANQIUGANGCAIHEQITADAZONGSHANGPINSHICHANGDEJIAGEDAFUXIADIE。ZI2018NIAN7YUECHUYILAI,LUOWENGANGFOBJIAGEMEIDUNXIADIEYUE110MEIYUANHUO20%,CONGMEIDUNYUE600MEIYUANJIANGZHIMEIDUN490MEIYUAN。MUQIANDEBAOJIAQUJIANHENDA,ELUOSIGANGCHANGDEDIDUANCHANPINJIAGEYUEWEIMEIDUN465MEIYUAN,ZHONGGUOGANGCHANGDEJIAGEYUEWEIMEIDUN480MEIYUAN,QITAYIXIEDAXINGYATAIGANGCHANGMEIDUNRENGZAI520MEIYUANZHI550MEIYUANZHIJIAN。ZHONGGUOCHUCHANGJIAZI2018NIAN11YUEZHONGXUNYILAIYICONGMEIDUN482MEIYUANDIEZHIMEIDUN453MEIYUAN。MEIGUOXIANHUOJIAGEZI2018NIAN7YUECHUYILAIYIXIADIEZHIMEIDUN860MEIYUAN,ER2017NIAN7YUEDEDUANZANFENGZHIWEIMEIDUN1006MEIYUAN(JIYUWSDDEGANGTIEJIZHUNSHICHANGSHUJU)。

图为HRB出口价格走势

未来几个月没有价格“死亡螺旋”

江西11选5LUOWENGANGCHUKOUJIAGECONG2018NIANCHUNJIZUIGAODIANLEIJIXIADIEYUE120MEIYUANMEIDUN。ERQIE,WSDRENWEIJIAGEKENENGHUIDIEZHI465MEIYUANMEIDUN,HUOZHEMEIDUNZAIXIADIE25MEIYUAN。RANER,RUGUOCUNZAIJIAGE“SIWANGLUOXUAN”,JIAGEJIANGHUIJIANGZHIMEIDUN375—400MEIYUAN,ZHEIYIWEIZHE,JIAGEJIEJINHUOLVEDIYUZHONGDENGCHENGBENGONGCHANGDEBIANJICHENGBEN(JIESHIYUANCAILIAOJIAGEYEJIANGDIYUDANGQIANJIAGE)

以下是WSD认为价格“死亡螺旋”不会出现的几个原因:

YISHI2016NIANQIUJIYILAI,QUANQIUGANGTIEXINGYEJINRU“BAOHUZHUYISHIDAI”。XUDUOGUOJIADEGANGTIEZHIZAOSHANGPOQIEXUYAOZHEIGEXINDE“SHIDAI”,YINWEIBINGGOU、TIGAOJIZHONGDUDENGXINGWEIBINGBUNENGBANGZHUTAMENHUIFUQIZAIQUANQIUSHICHANGDE“DINGJIANENGLI”。10NIANQIAN,CHUKOUGANGCHANGDESHULIANGBIXIANZAISHAODEDUO。XINGYEXINDEBAOHUZHUYISHIDAISHISHIYU2016NIANCHUNJI,DANGSHILUOWENGANGJIAGEBAODIEZHIMEIDUN270MEIYUAN(FOBJIAGE),DAYUEDIYUZHONGDENGCHENGBENDEFEIZHONGGUOHEZHONGGUOGANGCHANGDEBIANJICHENGBENDE40—70MEIYUANMEIDUN。

江西11选5ERSHIGANGTIEZHIZAOSHANGDEYUANCAILIAOJIAGEJINGUANZUIJINYOUSUOHUIDIAO,DANZONGTISHANGRENGCHUYUXIANGDANGGAODESHUIPING。LIANJIAOMEIHEYEJINJIAORENGRANGONGBUYINGQIU,LIANJIAOMEIFANGMIAN,YIGEZHONGYAOYINSUSHIAODALIYADEGANGKOUHETIELUYUNSHUWENTI;YEJINJIAOFANGMIAN,CONG2017NIANXIATIANKAISHI,ZHONGGUOZHENGFUZHENDUIKONGQIWURANGUOYUYANZHONGDEDANWEI,YAOQIUQIGUANBIJIAOLU。AODALIYAFOBYINGJIAOMEIDEJIAGECONGMEIDUN225MEIYUANJIANGZHIMEIDUN215MEIYUAN,CONGZHONGGUOGANGKOUCHUKOUDEYEJINJIAOCONGMEIDUN375MEIYUANJIANGZHIMEIDUN350MEIYUAN。

TIEKUANGSHIQIUTUANXIANGDUISHAOJIEFENKUANGJUYOUHENGAODEYIJIA,QIUTUANMEIDUNDAYUE62MEIYUAN,ERYUNWANGZHONGGUODE62%TIEKUANGFENDAYUE59MEIYUAN/DUN。SHAOJIEJIKEYIJIANGSHAOJIEFENZHUANHUAWEISHAOJIEKUANG——CHENGBENYUE25MEIYUAN/DUN,DANSHIYOUYUHENDUOSHAOJIEJIWURANYANZHONG,ZHENGFUYAOQIUJIANGQIGUANBI,YINCIQIUTUANKUANGDEXUQIUSHIFENQIANGJING。

MEIGUOGANGCHANGSHIYONGDESUIGANGXIEJIAGEPIANGAO,YUEWEI345MEIYUAN/DUN。WSDRENWEISUIFEIGANGZAISHIYONGJIAZHISHANGYUTIEKUANGSHIHELIANJIAOMEIJIEJIN。YUNWANGTUERQIGANGKOUDEZHONGRONGFEIGANG(80∶20)JIAGEYEPIANGAO,ZUIJINMEIDUNXIAJIANG10—15MEIYUANZHIMEIDUN320MEIYUANZUOYOU。ZHONGGUODEZHONGRONGFEIGANGJIAGEYUEWEIMEIDUN315MEIYUAN,ZHEISHIYIGEXIANGDANGGAODEJIAGE,YUANYINRUXIA:ZHONGGUOFEIGANGGONGYINGLIANGDAFUZENGZHANG——MEINIANZENGZHANGYUE9%; WEIZUZHIFEIGANGWAILIU,ZHONGGUODUIFEIGANGCHUKOUZHENGSHOU40%DEGUANSHUI; XINBANBUDEJINKOUFEIGANGDEXINBIAOZHUNDADAJIANSHAOLEFEIGANGJINKOULIANG,YINWEIHAIGUANJUJUEHEISEJINSHUDIYU99%DEFEIGANG。

MEIGUOYOUZHIFEIGANGDEJIAGEJIAOGAO,MEIDUN380—400MEIYUAN。YUYONGYOUZIYINGTIEKUANGSHIKUANGSHANDEDICHENGBENGANGCHANGXIANGBI,JIYUDIANLUDEXIAOXINGGANGCHANGLUOWENGANGDEYUNYINGCHENGBENYUEGAOCHU50MEIYUAN/DUN。

TUWEIMEIGUOGANGCHANGYUNYINGCHENGBENDUIBI

江西11选5SANSHIZAIYINJIEJIARIYINSUZAOCHENGDEJIJIEXINGXIAHUAHOU,QUANQIUGANGTIEXUQIUZAI2018NIANSIJIDUBAOCHIWENDING。QUANQIUGANGTIECHANLIANGRENGJIEJINLISHIZUIGAOSHUIPING,NIANCHANLIANGYUE18.5YIDUN。2018NIAN10YUE,ZHONGGUOGANGCHANGNIANHUACHANLIANGWEI9.72YIDUN,TONGBIZENGJIA1.4YIDUN; ER10YUEQUANQIUGANGTIECHANLIANGTONGBIZENGZHANG9%。

SISHIQUANQIUGANGTIEXUQIUSHOUYIYUXUDUOGUOJIAGUDINGZICHANTOUZIZHICHU(FAI)DESHANGSHENG。YOUYUJIUYEZENGZHANGSHISUOYOUGUOJIAZHENGCEZHIDINGZHEZUIGUANXINDEWENTI,ERRENGONGZHINENGZHENGZAIJIASUCHUANGZAOQUDAIGONGRENDEJIQIHERUANJIAN,ZHENGCEZHIDINGZHEZHENGZAIXUNQIUZENGJIAZIBENZHICHUHEJIANSHEXIANGMU,YICIZUOWEICHUANGZAOGENGDUOJIUYEJIHUIDESHOUDUAN。

WUSHIJIANYUMUQIANGEGUOGUONEISHICHANGJIAGEGAOQIECHANLIANGQIANGJING,YUJINIANQIANXIANGBI,GENGSHAODEGANGCHANGYUANYIYICHAODIJIAGECHUKOUGANGCAI。XIANGFAN,DANGLIRUNKONGJIANHENBOSHI,XUDUOGANGCHANGXIANGSHOUGAIXINGYE“HUANGJINLIRUNSHIDAI”——CHUKOUZENGJIAKENENGBEISHIWEIGONGCHANGSHOUZHIPINGHENGDEBIYAOTIAOJIAN。ZHUYI,GUONEISHICHANGDUNGANGLIRUNYUEGAO,GANGCHANGCHUKOUYIYUANYUEDI。

小结

2018NIAN7YUE1RIZHI2018NIAN11YUE,QUANQIUGANGCAIHEQITADAZONGSHANGPINSHICHANGDEJIAGEDAFUXIADIE,WSDRENWEILUOWENGANGJIAGE“SIWANGLUOXUAN”BUHUICHUXIAN,ZHUYAOYUANYINRUXIA:HONGGUANFANGMIAN,MAOYIMOCABUHUIYANZHONGZUAIQUANQIUJINGJIKUOZHANG,QUANQIUHUOBIGONGYINGKUANSONG,LILVSHUIPINGJIANGCHUYUJIAODISHUIPING;GANGTIEXINGYEFANGMIAN,2016NIANQIUJIYILAI,QUANQIUGANGTIEXINGYEJINRU“BAOHUZHUYISHIDAI”,GANGCHANGZHENGXIANGSHOUGAIXINGYE“HUANGJINLIRUNSHIDAI”,GANGCHANGCHUKOUYIYUANJIAODI;YUANLIAOFANGMIAN,GANGTIEYUANCAILIAOJIAGEZONGTISHANGRENGCHUYUXIANGDANGGAODESHUIPING,ZHONGDENGCHENGBENGANGCHANGDEYUNYINGCHENGBENDUIJIAGEZHICHENGJIAOQIANG。LINGWAI,SHOUYIYUXUDUOGUOJIAGUDINGZICHANTOUZIZHICHUDESHANGSHENG,QUANQIUGANGTIEXUQIUBAOCHIPINGWENZENGZHANG。

DANWSDDUI2019NIANXIABANNIANLUOWENGANGCHUKOUJIAGEBIAOSHIDANYOU。YOUYU2019NIANXIATIAN,ZHONGGUOLUOWENGANGDEGONGYINGKENENGCHUXIANGUOSHENG,LUOWENGANGCHUKOUJIAGEXIAXINGYALIJIANGZHONGXIAN,ZHONGGUOGANGCHANGJIANGWEISHIJIESHICHANGTIGONGCHAODIJIADEHRB,HRBDECHUKOUJIAZAIXIAYIGEDIMIQIKENENGHUIDUANZANJIANGZHIMEIDUN400—425MEIYUAN。 (World Steel Dynamics/WEN GUANGFAQIHUOYANGFEI/BIANYIBENWENFANYIZIWorld Steel DynamicsBAOGAO)

BENWENNEIRONGJINGONGCANKAO,JUCIRUSHIFENGXIANZIDAN