螺矿分化折射出了什么?

发布时间:2019-07-09

螺矿分化是中国从旧产业向新产业过渡的标志。

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十九大对房地产提出了最重要的影响“房主不炒”从政策方面基本定性了房地产的职能。

螺纹在去年四季度下跌的时候跌幅达到30%左右,而铁矿跌幅仅有10%多一点。两者的差距在后供给侧时代的反射,螺纹的利润在经过供给侧改革后利润大幅飙升最高达到1000多,在高利润趋势下扩大产能成为首要选择,行业兼并重组也将是未来的趋势。在钢厂扩大产能的时候对铁矿的需求必然会上升,今年的矿难只是铁矿上涨的催化剂并不是主要决定因素,即使今年没有矿难铁矿照样会上涨,矿难只是推高了绝对价格。主要原因依然是中国在后供给侧时代的产能扩张。

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如果把19大认为供给侧之后是政策对地产的首次制约,那么后面的的手段就是对前面的证真,钢材最依赖的地产如果出现了周期拐点,钢厂在最不适当的时间段选择了产能扩张,后面可以想象新一轮产能过剩和行业负债重启可能越来越近了。上游的铁矿必然是不见兔子不撒鹰。

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