又跌停了 PTA的“心思”很难猜

发布时间:2019-07-24

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回顾TA近一个月的行情,连续涨停后迅速跌停的行情多次出现,盘面一天300个点的波动极端行情在近一个月屡见不鲜,然而PTA现货产业链的基本面却未发生明显变化,本轮的大幅下跌需求偏弱背景下供应商挺价意愿松动是核心逻辑。

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淡季缺乏新订单,聚酯持续低产销,需求弱是基本面主基调

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终端织造端,6月中旬后在买涨不买跌的心态下,持续抄底备货涤丝原料,进入7月后江浙织机的原料备货峰值达到20—30天,成品坯布库存虽然在上涨过程中,有部分新订单下达,但新订单不明显,随着原料的下跌叠加进入淡季,坯布库存天数再次上涨到42.5天。淡季缺乏新订单下,织造消化原料备货为主,聚酯经历持续近20天的低产销,截止23日7月涤丝平均产销仅3成左右。随着织造消化原料库存,上周织机的原料备货天数下降至12.1天中性水平,但当前处于夏季高温淡季,部分消化完原料库存的装置逐步开始停产,加弹和织机下降较快。根据CCF统计,截至目前综合江浙加弹、织造开工分别在73%、63%,分别较6月底高位下降17、16个百分点。预计随着终端原料备货的消化,停车或进一步加剧。

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随着织造持续低原料采购,终端持续负反馈到聚酯端,涤丝库存累库迅速,当前POY、DTY、FDY库存分别为13.4、17.9和8.5天,相较6月下旬的聚酯负库存来说,当前库存天数已经让部分感到库存压力,聚酯工厂停车降负逐渐增多,部分产品的现金流也较差或在盈亏平衡线附近,部分聚酯工厂已逐渐开始降价促销,甚至有工厂开始出售PTA原料。

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又跌停了!PTA的“心思”很难猜

月底主流供应商挺价意愿松动,现货流通偏紧格局小幅变化

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进入7月底,前期停车的洛化装置重启,福化450万吨的大装置也即将重启,市场上的供应或明显增加。此外,部分工厂和下游PTA合约结算周期每月26号至下月25号,主流供应商抬高月均价后前期收购的非主港货出货意愿增加,主港货也陆续在现货市场出售,现货流通偏紧格局小幅变化,需求仍然偏弱的背景下,主流供应商挺价意愿松动,成为行情下跌的导火索。

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基本面仍然偏弱,关注大厂态度和涤丝产销情况

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