甲醇现“红三兵”走势 未来机会在哪里?

发布时间:2019-08-01

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目前市场关注的是后续煤制烯烃投产的情况和国内甲醇企业开工情况。由于甲醇供需格局的改善仍然需要时间,因此操作甲醇建议短期观望为主,等待做多机会。套利方面,考虑到外采甲醇制烯烃已经存在利润,因此采取多甲醇,空聚丙烯做空煤制烯烃利润的操作。

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甲醇见底后连续三日反弹,将对裸空头寸形成挤压,当前关注 2200 元上方压力。做缩MTP利润出现良好时机,可积极参与。
​  本轮反弹更多的反映了供应端的边际好转,7月下旬以来,跌跌不休的甲醇价格已经击穿上游企业的成本线,使得内地中小型装置的停车增多,其中山东滕州盛隆一套年产15万吨甲醇装置7月26日起停车检修20天左右;山东荣信化工年产25万吨甲醇装置7月31号停车检修15天左右;甘肃华亭年产60万吨甲醇装置临时停车检修,预计为期15-30天,重启时间待定;咸阳化学60万吨装置8月初检修,预计中旬重启等。此外,而利润不佳也使得原计划7月底重启的部分装置推迟,使得局部供应出现缩量。

 

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WEILAIZOUSHINENGFOUYANXUXUYAOGUANZHUXUQIUCENGMIANDEDONGXIANG。

我们认为,在甲醛等传统下游开工恢复到高位以及新建MTO落地之前,本轮上涨更多的是反弹而不是反转,短期反弹高度有限,不建议过度追涨。

甲醇现“红三兵”走势,未来机会在哪里? | 圆桌解盘

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