傅海棠:投资要理性 不要感性和惯性

发布时间:2018-01-22

GONGYEPINKANXUQIU,NONGCHANPINKANGONGYING,ZHUYAOHAISHIZAICHANLIANG。YINWEINONGCHANPINDEXUQIUXIANGDUIBIJIAOWENDING,MEINIANDOUYOUGANGXINGZENGZHANG,JINGJIHAODESHIHOUZENGZHANGDEFUDUJIUSHAOWEIDAYIDIAN,JINGJIJIBIANBUHAODESHIHOU,NONGCHANPINDEXUQIUYESHIZAIZENGJIADE,ZHEISHIJINGJIHESHEHUIFAZHANDEJIEDUANXINGWENTI。YINWEICHENGZHENHUA,RENMENDESHENGHUOSHUIPINGZAITIGAO,HAIYOUXIAOFEIGUANNIANDEZHUANBIAN,NIANQINGRENYUELAIYUEZHANJUXIAOFEIDEZHULIU,TAMENDOUHENXIHUANXIAOFEI,ZHEISHISHIDAIDETEZHENG。YINCI,NONGCHANPINZUIZHUYAOBIANLIANGHAISHICHANLIANG。

NONGCHANPINCHANLIANGCHURUSHIBIJIAODADE。SUIRANXIANZAIKEXUEJISHUHENFADA,KANGZAINENGLIYEBIJIAOQIANGLE,DANHAISHIYOUHENDUOZIRANQIHOUDEYINSUMEIYOUJIEJUE。BIRUGANHAN,GANHANWENTIZAIZHONGGUOJIEJUEDEHAISHIBIJIAOHAODE,YINWEIRENDUODISHAO,YINWEIQINLAODEGUANGFANNONGHUDECUNZAI,JIASHANGZHENGFUYIGUANZHONGSHINONGTIANSHUILIJIBENSHESHIJIANSHE,JIBENSHANGDOUNENGJIAOSHANGDI。DANSHIDAOGUOWAIDEHUA,SHIJISHANGHAISHIKAOTIANCHIFAN,CHULEZHONGGUOYIWAIDEGUOJIAHEDIQU,BIRUZHUCHANQUNANMEIZHOUDEAGENTINGHEBAXI,HEMEIGUOZHEIYANGDELIANGSHIZHUCHANDI,DOUSHIKAOTIANCHIFANDE。SUOYIBUYAOYIWEIXIANZAIKEJISHUIPINGTIGAOLE,ZHONGZISHUIPINGTIGAOLE,YIHOUTIANQIDUINONGZUOWUJIUMEIYOUYINGXIANGLE。WOFAXIANXIANZAIZHEIZHONGGUANNIANHAISHIHENYANZHONGDE,ZHEISHIBUDUIDE。HENDUOJIANGZUODOUZHEIYANGSHUO(RENWEIXIANZAIKEXUEJISHUTIGAOLE,ZHONGZIJISHUTIGAOLE,TIANQIDUIDANCHANMEIYOUYINGXIANG),DANSHIZHONGZIJISHUTIGAOLEZHISHITIGAOLEDANCHAN,DUIGANHANMEIYOUYONG,BUXIAYU,ZHAOYANGBUSHOU。ZHEISHIYIGEZHULIUDEGUANDIAN(TIANQIDUIDANCHANMEIYOUYINGXIANG),YESHIYIGEWUQU。

江西11选5JIUGENQIANJINIANYIYANG,XIONGSHILIANDIE3NIAN,HENDUORENJIUBUXIANGXINSHANGPINNENGZHANGLE,HURAN2016NIANBAOZHANG。QISHILISHIGUILVJIUMEIYOUBIANGUO,BUNENGLIANZHANGJINIANJIUBUXIANGXINGUILVLE,GUILVYIZHISHIMEIYOUBIANDE,QIHOUYEYIYANG,QIHOUDUINONGCHANPINDEYINGXIANGZHIDAOXIANZAIWEIZHIHAISHIHENDADE。

江西11选5ZONGLAIDESHUOJIUSHI:SUIRANXIANZAIZHONGZIJISHUTIGAOLE,KEXUESHUIPINGTIGAOLE,GUANLIJISHUYESHANGQULE,DANSHITIANQIDUINONGZUOWUDEYINGXIANGMEIYOUGAIBIAN。BIRUDIWEN,DONGBEIWEISHENME2017NIANYUMIHESHUIDAODAFUDUJIANCHAN?JIUSHIYINWEIWENDUDI。SUIRANXIANZAIZHONGZIJISHUTIGAOLE,SHUIJIAOTIAOJIANHAOLE,CHUCAOYEHAOLE,DANSHIRUGUOWENDUDIDEHUA,JIUMEIYOUBANFALE。

HAIYOUBIRU“TIANNIAN”XIANXIANG:QIHOUZHENGCHANG,YUSHUIZHENGCHANG,DANCHANTURANDAFUDUDETIGAOHUOZHEDAFUDUJIANCHAN,NENGCHADUOSHAONI,BIGANHANDOULIHAI。WOJIUYISHANDONGWEILI,ZHENGCHANGDENIANFEN,YUMIDECHANLIANGSHI1200JIN/MU,HURANYOUYINIANJIUXIAJIANGDAO600JIN/MU。ZHEIYINIANFENGDIAOYUSHUN,SHENMEDOUZHENGCHANG,MEIKANCHUYIDIANWENTILAI,YIXIAZIJIU600JIN/MU,WENDUDIDEHUAHAINENGKANDECHULAI,HUOZHEGAOWENGANHANZAOCHENGSHOUSUNYENENGKANCHULAI,DANSHI,ZHEIYINIANDEJIANCHANMEIYOURENHEDEJIXIANGKEXUN。DADOUYOUYINIAN(YEFASHENGLE“TIANNIAN”XIANXIANG),WOMENSHANDONGLUXINANDEDADOUZAIQIANJINIANZHENGCHANGDOUSHI150GONGJIN/MU,YEJIUSHI300JIN/MU,ZUIHAODEJIUSHI400JIN/MU,TURANYOUYINIAN600JIN/MU,WOZIJIDOUMENGLE,WOZIJIZHONGLELIANGMUDADOU,TURANDUOSHOULEHAODUO,CONG300JIN/MUFANDAO600JIN/MU。ZHEIYINIANDADOUCHENGSHULEYIHOUQUANBUJI“LEIDAOLE”,CHENGSHUYIHOUQUANBUSHIDAOZAIDISHANGDE,ZHEIJIUSHI“TIANNIAN”。DANSHIDIERNIANJIUHUIFUZHENGCHANGLE,YOUBIANCHENGLESANSIBAIJIN。

GEBIENIANFENKANZHEZHANGDEHENHAO,DANSHIJIUSHISHOUBUXIADONGXILAI,ZHEIJIUSHILAOBAIXINGSHUODE“SHOUQINGBUSHOUZHONG,BUGUANDA”。YOUSHIHOUKANZHEZHANGDEBUZADI,DANSHIYISHOUXIALAICHANLIANGHAIBUDI,“SHOUZHONG,GUANDA”。SUOYIWOMENZAIYANJIUNONGCHANPINDESHIHOUYAOSHIKEZHUYIZHEIYIDIAN:YEJIUSHIKANZHEZHANGDEHENHAO,BUYIDINGNENGSHOUDAOSHENME;KANZHEZHANGDEBUHAODE,YEBUYIDINGDANCHANDI,FANERNENGSHOUDAOLIANGSHI。SUOYIYAOYISHISHOUWEIZHUN,YAOYISHIJISHOUDAODECHANLIANGWEISHISHI。

江西11选5WOFAXIANHENDUOZHUANYEDENONGDIAODUI,BAOKUOHENDUOZHUANYEDENONGYEYANJIUYUAN,HUOZHEBAOKUOGUOJIAJIBIEDENONGCHANPINYANJIUZHUANJIA,DOUBUYIDINGRENSHIZHEIYIDIAN。SUOYITAMENWANGWANGHUISHIWU,YOUSHIHOUBEIDALIAN,JIUSHIZHEIGEYUANYIN。BIRUMIANHUA,2015NIANDESHIHOUMIANHUAYINWEIGAOWENDEWEIHAI,ZAOCHENGMIANHUASHENGZHANGBUZHENGCHANG,LIANXU20TIANWENDUDOUHENGAO。WOMENZHIDAOMIANHUAZAIWENDUCHAOGUO35DUDESHIHOUJIUTINGZHISHENGZHANGLE,YEJIUSHIJIEJIN20TIANDESHIJIANMIANHUADOUMEIYOUSHENGZHANG。NEINIANDEDANCHANKENDINGSHIBUXINGLE,SHANGMIANDEMIANHUATAODOULUOLE,MEIYOUJIETAO,YUANLAIDELAOTAOYANGFENSHUSONGYEBUGOU,KANZHETONGYANGDADETAO,MIANHUAZUIHOUKAICHULAIKENDINGSHIXUDE,ZHEIGENIXIANGDOUBUYONGXIANG。JIEGUOZHUANYEDECECHANDUICEWANCHANSHUOSHI380GONGJIN/MU。DOUCEWANCHANLE,NEIJIUSHOUBEI,SHOUYISHOU,KANYIKAN,YISHOUSHI280GONGJIN/MU,CHAYUANLE!ZUIHOUDECECHANSHUJUJIUMEIHAOYISIGONGBU。NISHUOZHEISHIZHUANYEDECECHANDUI,BUSHINAOXIAOHUAMA?NIJIUBUXIANGYIXIANGJINNIANDETIANQISHENMEQINGKUANG,HAIMEIYOULAOBAIXINGDONGXING。ZHUANYECECHANDUIDOUGAOCHULAIZHEIGEXIAOHUA,LAOBAIXINGBUSHIZHUANYEDEDOUZHIDAO。SUOYIWOMENZAIYANJIUNONGCHANPINDESHIHOUYIDINGYAOZHUYIZHEIXIETEDIAN,NONGZUOWUDETEDIANSHIWOMENXUYAOZHUYIDE,BUZHUYIDEHUAZHENSHIKANBUMINGBAI。

BAOKUOYUMI,2017NIANDEGUANJIANGQIJIANWENDUBIJIAODI,WOTIANTIANKANTIANQIYUBAO,HOUMIANYOUYIDUANSHIJIANZUIDIWENDUWEICHIZAI11-12℃ZHIJIAN,YUMIZENMEGUANJIANGNI?ZHEIMEDIDEWENDU。JILINDEWENDUDOUZHEIYANG,GENGBUYONGSHUOHEILONGJIANGLE。SUOYIWOJIUXIANGQUKANKANDIWENDUIYUMISHENGZHANGDEWEIHAICHENGDU。9YUE8HAOXIAOFANWEIDEDIAOYAN,NEISHIWOMENZAIHAERBINKAIWANHUI,YIGONGSHI5GEREN,WOJIUSHUOQUKANYIKANBA,WENDUZHEIMEDIDEHUA,CHANLIANGDAODIZENMEYANGNI。DIYIZHANZOUDAOBEIAN,YOUYIGEDAHUBAOLEHAODUODI,TAJIUSHUOGANGCEWANCHAN,GAOCHAN,TEDAFENGSHOU,TABENRENYEHENXIANGXIN。WOJIUYOUDIANMENG,YIHUOWENDUZHEIMEDI,ZENMEHUISHOUCHENGZHEIMEHAO。JIEGUOSHOUXIALEYIHOU,JIANCHAN,ERQIESHIDAFUDUDEJIANCHAN。PUBIANXINGDE,HEILONGJIANG、JILIN、NEIMENGDOUSHIJIANCHAN,MIANJIYEJIAN,ERQIEJIANDEHENHEREN,CHAOGUOLEDADUOSHURENDEYUJI。

TOUZIYAOLIXING,BUYAOGANXINGHEGUANXING

江西11选5WEISHENMEYOUHENDUODETOUZIZHEZAIXINGQINGDEZHUANZHEZHICHU,GAOBUQINGCHUNI?YINWEITAMENDUISHISHIQINGKUANGBUQINGCHU。DABUFENRENDESIWEIDOUSHIYOUGUANXINGDE,PINGXIANGXIANG,YEJIUSHIGANXINGRENZHIDEBIJIAODUO,LIXINGRENZHIDEHENSHAO。WOMENZUOYANJIU,ZHIYAOBULIXING,JIUKANBUQINGSHISHI。YIDINGYAOBAGANXINGHEGUANXINGDOUQUDIAO,YISHISHIWEIYIJU,ZHIYOUZHEIYANGCAINENGJIEJUEWENTI,KANQINGXINGQINGDEBIANHUAHEZHUANZHE。DADUOSHURENDOUYOUGUANXING,ZHEISHIRENDETIANXING,BUGANXIANGXINGAIBIAN,XINLISHANGGAIBUGUOLAI,NIGENTASHUOTAHAIBUXIN,SUOYISHUOZUOYANJIU、ZUOTOUZIYIDINGYAOSHANGSHENGDAOLIXING。

BUYAOYONGGUANXINGSIWEIHEGANXINGSIWEILAIKANDAIWENTI,YAOYONGJIYUKEGUANSHISHIDELUOJITUILIYANYIJINXINGYANJIU,YAOXIANGXINZHENSHIDESHISHI,BUYAOGANXINGHEGUANXING。BIRUJUGEDUANQIDELIZI,LUOWENGANG、TIEKUANGSHI,BUTANYIHOUDEJIAGEZHANGDIE,KAICHUNHOUKAIGONGXUQIUDABAOFA,ZHEISHISHISHI。ZAIJUGEZHANGQIDELIZI,TONG、XIN、QIAN、XIDENGDENG,ZHANGQILAIKANZHIDECHIYOU,YINWEIZHONGGUODEJINGJIFAZHANMEIYOUWENTI,QUANQIUFAZHANZHONGGUOJIASHENZHIOUMEIFADAGUOJIAYUELAIYUEDUOXIANGZHONGGUOXUE,GAOJIANSHE,ZHEISHISHISHI。ZAIBIRUGAODUANBAIJIU,SHIYINGLVDIDE,ZHIDEMAI,YINWEIZHONGGUODEXIAOFEISHENGJISHIBUKENIZHUANDE,ZHEIYESHISHISHI。

QUANQIUBUKEZAISHENGZIYUAN,HUIYUELAIYUEXIQUE。ZHANGYUANLAIKAN,SHIJIEGEGUOYIDINGHUIQIANGDUOBUKEZAISHENGZIYUAN!WOMENYAOXIANGXINZHEIXIEKEGUANCUNZAIDESHISHI。

SHISHIDEJICHUSHIZHENSHIDEYIJU。2SHI2 ,3SHI3,ERSANJIUSHI6,NIBUNENGPINGGANJUESHUOSHI10,HUOZHESHUOSHI8,6JIUSHISHISHI!NIBUNENGKAOGANJUE,KAOGUANXINGSIWEI。ZHIYAOWOMENDIAOCHADESHUJUMEIYOUCUO,NEISHUJUSHIDUIDE。SHENMEJIAOSUAN,WOMENSHUO“NENGQIAHUISUAN”,YIQIANSHUOZHUGELIANGHUISUAN,JIANGZIYAHUISUAN,QISHIZHEIGESUANBUTONGYUSHUXUEDE2、3、6ZHEIMEZHIGUAN,JIUSHIGENJUJUTIDESHIJIQINGKUANGTUISUANCHULAIDE。RUGUONIDEJISHUMEIYOUCUOWUDEHUA,NIDESHUJUMEIYOUCUOWUDEHUA,NEINISUANCHULAIDEJIEGUOYIDINGSHITIEJINSHISHIDE。NEINIJIUYAOXIANGXINZHEIGESHISHI,QIANWANBUYAOXIANGXINNIDEGANJUEHEGUANXING,ZHEISHIWOMENYIDINGYAOLAOJIDE。

江西11选5QISHIZHEIGESHICHANGSHANGDABUFENDEYANJIUFANGFASHIBUDUIDE,KEYIZHEIMESHUO,BUDANBUDUIHAIHUNONGREN,HENDUODEYANJIUFANGFAHAIBURU“ZHUAJIU”,FANZHENGSHANGPINJIAGEJIULIANGGEFANGXIANG,BUSHIZHANGJIUSHIDIE,LIANGGEHUOYIGE,ZUIHOUYANJIULAIYANJIUQUFANERGAODE99%DEDOUSIDIAOLE,SUOYIHAIBURUBUYANJIU。SHENMEKXIAN,SHENMEBOLANG,YANJIULAIYANJIUQU,QIANMEILE,NISHUONIYANJIUNEIGEGANMA!WOCONGZUOQIHUOYILAIJIUMEIXINGUOZHEIGESHI,WOSHI2000NIANJINRUDEQIHUOSHICHANG,DANGSHIYIQIZUOQIHUODEYOUWULIUGEREN,TAMENDOUZAIYANJIUKXIAN,NISHUONIGUANKXIANGANMANI?

GONGQIUJUEDINGJIAGE,GONGGUOYUQIUJIAGEJIUDIE,GONGBUYINGQIUJIAGEJIUZHANG,FANGUOLAIJIAGESHANGZHANGHUOXIADIEDAOYIDINGCHENGDUYOUHUIFANZUOYONGYUGONGQIU。WOMENZUOQIHUOZUODESHIWEILAI。JIAGEGAOJIUHUIYIZHIXUQIU,TONGSHIYOUHUICIJISHENGCHAN。SHENMEQINGKUANGZHIXIAHUICHUXIANGONGDAYUQIU,JIUSHIZAIQIYEYOULIANGHAOLIRUNDEQINGKUANGXIA,JIAGEYUEGAOQIYEZHUANDEQIANYUEDUO,YUENENGCIJITADESHENGCHANJIJIXING,ZHEISHIHOUZHUJIANJIUHUIDAOZHIGONGDAYUQIU。JIAGEDIDEQINGKUANGXIA,SHENMEJIAODINI,PEIQIAN,PEIDEYUEDUOJIAGEYUEDI,JIUJIANGDILESHENGCHANDEJIJIXING,RANHOUZHUJIANJIUFASHENGLEGONGBUYINGQIU,YOUQIYOUFASHENGLEKUCUNHUANG,NEIBUBAIFENZHIBAIJIAGEYAOZHANGMA!SUOYISHUOYIDINGYAOZHUAZHUHEXINYINSU。ZAIJIAGEDIDESHIHOU,YANZHONGDAJILESHENGCHANJIJIXING,FASHENGLEKUCUNHUANG,SUOYINIYAOZHUAZHUZHEIGESHIJI。RUGUONIDUIXIANHUOFEICHANGLEJIE,XIANHUOYOUKAISHIZHANGLE,MAIBUDAOHUOLE,QIHUOHAIMEIYOUDONG,ZHEISHIDACANGWEIZUOJINQUJIUSUANLE。SHIJISHANGWOZUOLE18NIANQIHUO,CHIKUIHAISHICHIGUODE,DANSHIYUEDACANGWEIDESHIHOUYUEMEIYOUCHIKUIGUO,KUIDOUSHIKUIZAIQINGCANGDESHIHOU,YINWEIKANDEZHUNDESHIHOUCANGWEICAINENGDA。KUIQIANDOUSHIYIDIANYIDIANKUIDE,ZHUANQIANDOUSHIYIBAZHUANLAIDE。SUOYISHUOHAISHIYAOYANJIUDAOWEI,YAOXIAGONGFU,GONGFUZAIPANWAI,BUZAIDIANNAOZHONG,BUZAIKXIANZHONG。YAOXIAGONGFU,SHENRUDAOTIANJIANDITOU,SHENRUDAOCHANGKUANGQIYE。ZUOYANJIU,HEJIANGAOLOUDASHAYIYANG,YAOCONGDADIJIKAISHI!

ZHIYAOYANJIUFANGFADUILU,LINIANZHENGQUE,SILUDUITOU,JIANCHILIXING,BINGQIGANXINGHEGUANXING,CHENGGONGZHISHISHIJIANWENTI。DANGRANYEYOUYUNQIZAILIMIAN,DANSHISHIJIANZHANGLE,YUNQISHIYIDINGHUIYOUDE。QIANSHIZHANGYANJINGDE,ZHIYAONIXINQINFUCHU,SHIJIANZUGOUZHANG,QIANJIUHUIPAONINEILIQULE,ZHEIJIUSHIYUNQI。ZHIYAOZHAODELUDUI,JIUNENGZOUDAONIXIANGYAODAODADEDIFANG!